(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/avoid-big-ticket-exposure-for-now-bhambwani/)
Technical Analyst, Vijay Bhambwani:
The markets behaved along expectations put forth yesterday for a weekend session. The 2905 bullish pivot did not hold and laid the tone for a weak session. The benchmark indices closed with minor changes, even as the technology sector continued to be the nemesis of the bulls. The traded volumes were lower as compared to the previous session, which is a routine weekend phenomena. The market breadth was positive as the BSE & NSE combined advance decline ratio was 2366 : 1233. The capitalisation of the breadth on a commensurate basis was also positive as the figures were Rs 11935 Crs : Rs 3662 Crs.
The indices have closed in the upper half the intraday band which shows buying on declines by short sellers. The same is corroborated by the oriental charts which indicate a "tonbo" formation that indicates a resistance by the bulls to let go of positions. The intraday band of 2975 / 2860 levels advocated for Friday was violated on the downsides as the index made a long "shadow" on the Japanese charts.
The coming session is likely to witness a range of 3000 on advances and 2825 on declines. The bullish pivot will be at the 2885 above which the Nifty spot must remain if the bulls are to dominate the session. Conversely, a consistent trade below the 2860 levels, expect a weak outlook.
The market internals indicate a lower turnover as the participation levels fell due to the weekend factor. The number of trades decreased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating a weak buying bias. The capitalisation of the market was higher in line with an optimistic session.
The outlook for the markets today is that of caution as the bulls need to witness a closing above the 2950 - 2975 levels to see a sustained upmove. Ignore big ticket exposure for now.
Disclosure: The analyst has no exposure to any scrip/s recommended above.
Source : MoneyControl